Yeah man, both parties are constantly trying to shore up more power and then screeching when the other one does publicly, but not really stopping the march toward a more authoritarian state. They play the identity politics and the culture wars and they slowly reel us in and take a little bit more at a time. 9/11 was one excuse, the pandemic is another. Every crisis is a reason to keep us safe and less free.
Why does American politics seem to swing toward extremes so willingly? And it’s ALWAYS been so inclined - can’t blame it on the internet - remember McCarthy? Leaders of the “Free”World - my arse.
Thanks! I dunno, maybe the two party system? Maybe the way voting and the electoral college works? Maybe something more indelible, something about the way this country was formed? I really don't know.
In fairness, saying that "The only people vaccines truly protect are those who are vaccinated" isn't strictly correct. According to some big studies in the UK, vaccinated people don't transmit Delta just as strongly as the unvaccinated. Moreover, and that's a huge thing a lot of people miss, only infected people spread COVID, and vaccination prevents people from being infected. Not as effectively for Delta as it does for the previous variants, but still. A vaccinated person is around 50% less likely to get infected with Delta, so at least 50% less likely to spread the virus - and that's before we get into the nitty-gritty of exactly how much virus do infected vaccinated people breath out compared to infected non-vaccinated.
Erik, I have a sincere question and would be very interested in your answer. You've stated numerous times, including this article, that you're pro-vaccination and believe that "healthcare workers obviously should get vaccinated". But how exactly should those who don't wish to get a vaccine, even if you agree that they should, be compelled to do so, if not by mandate? To be clear, I'm not 100 percent behind the implementation of Hochul's mandate, but if we're unwilling to apply any force at all, of what use is the belief that people "should" get vaccinated?
Studies have shown that vaccinated people do in fact spread COVID, and especially Delta, even if they're not infected.
As to your question, I do *not* believe anyone should be compelled to put this vaccine in their bodies but I do believe we could create incentives to do so. I've mentioned a vaccine stimulus before. Vaccine bonuses could also happen. We could do lots of things, including make health insurance cheaper for the vaccinated etc. But also, I like to remind folks that over 700,000 Americans are being vaccinated every day so it may be that people are coming around to this on their own.
"Studies have shown that vaccinated people do in fact spread COVID, and especially Delta, even if they're not infected.". I think there's some mistake here. People that aren't infected can't spread COVID by definition. Hard to spread something you don't have. You need to have the virus in your system - more specifically, your sinuses - to breath it out and spread it. Basically, you need to test positive on a nasal swab to be able to spread the virus, which would mean that you're indeed infected.
I think what you might have meant is that people who are asymptomatic, i.e. infected but not actively sick, can still spread COVID. Which is absolutely true, but not the same as not being infected. Now, the effect of a vaccine is twofold: at its best, the COVID vaccine prevents infection, stopping a person from becoming a carrier. No infection, no virus in the sinuses, negative nasal swab, long and prosperous life, hopefully. At its worst, the vaccine fails to stop you from becoming infected, but it might severely lessen your symptoms and even render you asymptomatic. Still infected, though, with a positive swab and plenty of virus up your nostrils. In which case, yes, a vaccinated and infected person might be spreading COVID without showing any symptoms of the illness.
The important thing is, a vaccinated person has a lesser chance of becoming a carrier in the first place. The vaccine gives the body a chance to completely keep COVID out. Hence, on average, a vaccinated person is always less likely to spread the virus than an unvaccinated one.
As for incentives, that's a subject I'm personally conflicted about. On the one hand, I generally think any policy that favors the carrot is better than one that favors the stick. On the other hand, the idea of bribing people into an act of basic decency just doesn't sit right with me. And that's what getting vaccinated during a pandemic is - basic decency. That said, I agree with one of your previous articles - sneering at the vaccine-hesitant helps no one. Honestly, I'm just sad that vaccination is a point of contention in the first place.
I think what Redrock meant was that the vaccines reduce the probability of transmitting the disease, but it's confusing since in Europe most national health administrations started out with the position "the vaccines prevent transmission, full stop" and then suddenly flip-flopped to "the vaccines have no effect on transmission, full stop".
I'm aware of some recent data from the UK where they studied the question by looking at the rate of transmission by comparing transmissions in households in families with 1 unvaccinated spreading the disease to family members, vs. 1 vaccinated (with a breakthrough infection) spreading covid to family members; see: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717
Maybe this data was what Redrock had in mind... We see that the vaccines reduced the risk of transmission by a factor of roughly 50%, but I don't know whether this is delta or not. One should also remember that since they restricted to only confirmed breakthrough infections, the true protection (in reduced risk of catching covid-19) for the family members must strictly better than that, without accounting for delta at least.
I remember seeing some other papers focused on delta on the internet, but they were not the same kind of direct observations. Instead they focused on some kind of measure of viral load, or estimated duration of the disease, which are of course relevant for probability of transmission, but I can't vouch for them and I don't have time to search for them right now.
To be clear, I am not trying to show that you or Redrock is exactly right or wrong... In fact the data shows that vaccinated people can transmit the disease and that they can even get infected. There is reduced probability by some factor though, so mass vaccinations will have an effect on the rate of transmission.
Pretty much what I was getting at. Truth is, the data on comparative transmission rates of the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated is murky at best, especially once you take the delta variant into account. One thing we do know is that the jab reduces all infection related probabilities by some factor, including infection, developing symptoms and, consequently, spreading the virus. It doesn't bring any of those probabilities down to zero, but it's basically always better to be vaccinated than not when it comes to all things COVID.
This epidemic has revealed the authoritarian impulses of our "leaders".
Never expected much from them, but the media is cheering on the authoritarians (except for a few independents like Kain, Greenwald, and Weiss).
Never expected this trend towards authoritarianism to happen in the U.S.
But here we are.
And I, a card carrying member of the right (I am exaggerating) has become a sans culotte.
Time for Americans to speak up.
Yeah man, both parties are constantly trying to shore up more power and then screeching when the other one does publicly, but not really stopping the march toward a more authoritarian state. They play the identity politics and the culture wars and they slowly reel us in and take a little bit more at a time. 9/11 was one excuse, the pandemic is another. Every crisis is a reason to keep us safe and less free.
Why does American politics seem to swing toward extremes so willingly? And it’s ALWAYS been so inclined - can’t blame it on the internet - remember McCarthy? Leaders of the “Free”World - my arse.
Great commentary as usual though.
Thanks! I dunno, maybe the two party system? Maybe the way voting and the electoral college works? Maybe something more indelible, something about the way this country was formed? I really don't know.
In fairness, saying that "The only people vaccines truly protect are those who are vaccinated" isn't strictly correct. According to some big studies in the UK, vaccinated people don't transmit Delta just as strongly as the unvaccinated. Moreover, and that's a huge thing a lot of people miss, only infected people spread COVID, and vaccination prevents people from being infected. Not as effectively for Delta as it does for the previous variants, but still. A vaccinated person is around 50% less likely to get infected with Delta, so at least 50% less likely to spread the virus - and that's before we get into the nitty-gritty of exactly how much virus do infected vaccinated people breath out compared to infected non-vaccinated.
Erik, I have a sincere question and would be very interested in your answer. You've stated numerous times, including this article, that you're pro-vaccination and believe that "healthcare workers obviously should get vaccinated". But how exactly should those who don't wish to get a vaccine, even if you agree that they should, be compelled to do so, if not by mandate? To be clear, I'm not 100 percent behind the implementation of Hochul's mandate, but if we're unwilling to apply any force at all, of what use is the belief that people "should" get vaccinated?
Studies have shown that vaccinated people do in fact spread COVID, and especially Delta, even if they're not infected.
As to your question, I do *not* believe anyone should be compelled to put this vaccine in their bodies but I do believe we could create incentives to do so. I've mentioned a vaccine stimulus before. Vaccine bonuses could also happen. We could do lots of things, including make health insurance cheaper for the vaccinated etc. But also, I like to remind folks that over 700,000 Americans are being vaccinated every day so it may be that people are coming around to this on their own.
"Studies have shown that vaccinated people do in fact spread COVID, and especially Delta, even if they're not infected.". I think there's some mistake here. People that aren't infected can't spread COVID by definition. Hard to spread something you don't have. You need to have the virus in your system - more specifically, your sinuses - to breath it out and spread it. Basically, you need to test positive on a nasal swab to be able to spread the virus, which would mean that you're indeed infected.
I think what you might have meant is that people who are asymptomatic, i.e. infected but not actively sick, can still spread COVID. Which is absolutely true, but not the same as not being infected. Now, the effect of a vaccine is twofold: at its best, the COVID vaccine prevents infection, stopping a person from becoming a carrier. No infection, no virus in the sinuses, negative nasal swab, long and prosperous life, hopefully. At its worst, the vaccine fails to stop you from becoming infected, but it might severely lessen your symptoms and even render you asymptomatic. Still infected, though, with a positive swab and plenty of virus up your nostrils. In which case, yes, a vaccinated and infected person might be spreading COVID without showing any symptoms of the illness.
The important thing is, a vaccinated person has a lesser chance of becoming a carrier in the first place. The vaccine gives the body a chance to completely keep COVID out. Hence, on average, a vaccinated person is always less likely to spread the virus than an unvaccinated one.
As for incentives, that's a subject I'm personally conflicted about. On the one hand, I generally think any policy that favors the carrot is better than one that favors the stick. On the other hand, the idea of bribing people into an act of basic decency just doesn't sit right with me. And that's what getting vaccinated during a pandemic is - basic decency. That said, I agree with one of your previous articles - sneering at the vaccine-hesitant helps no one. Honestly, I'm just sad that vaccination is a point of contention in the first place.
I think what Redrock meant was that the vaccines reduce the probability of transmitting the disease, but it's confusing since in Europe most national health administrations started out with the position "the vaccines prevent transmission, full stop" and then suddenly flip-flopped to "the vaccines have no effect on transmission, full stop".
I'm aware of some recent data from the UK where they studied the question by looking at the rate of transmission by comparing transmissions in households in families with 1 unvaccinated spreading the disease to family members, vs. 1 vaccinated (with a breakthrough infection) spreading covid to family members; see: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717
Maybe this data was what Redrock had in mind... We see that the vaccines reduced the risk of transmission by a factor of roughly 50%, but I don't know whether this is delta or not. One should also remember that since they restricted to only confirmed breakthrough infections, the true protection (in reduced risk of catching covid-19) for the family members must strictly better than that, without accounting for delta at least.
I remember seeing some other papers focused on delta on the internet, but they were not the same kind of direct observations. Instead they focused on some kind of measure of viral load, or estimated duration of the disease, which are of course relevant for probability of transmission, but I can't vouch for them and I don't have time to search for them right now.
To be clear, I am not trying to show that you or Redrock is exactly right or wrong... In fact the data shows that vaccinated people can transmit the disease and that they can even get infected. There is reduced probability by some factor though, so mass vaccinations will have an effect on the rate of transmission.
Pretty much what I was getting at. Truth is, the data on comparative transmission rates of the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated is murky at best, especially once you take the delta variant into account. One thing we do know is that the jab reduces all infection related probabilities by some factor, including infection, developing symptoms and, consequently, spreading the virus. It doesn't bring any of those probabilities down to zero, but it's basically always better to be vaccinated than not when it comes to all things COVID.