End The War In Ukraine

It's time to negotiate a peace.

The Washington Post has a sobering report on the dire situation in Somalia as the African country’s people find themselves at the center of a perfect storm. Climate change, years of brutal drought and now a deadly food shortage thanks to the war in Ukraine have all conspired to bring Somalia to the brink of a deadly famine. Indeed, the death toll is already on the rise.

The sub-headline of the article says it all: “More than 7 million Somalis face acute food insecurity, with almost 250,000 at risk of imminent starvation.”

From the report:

There are the familiar culprits: a dearth of rainfall made worse by climate change; conflict; disease; the coronavirus pandemic; and even locust infestations.

But unlike previous hunger calamities, this one is exacerbated by a conflict 3,000 miles away. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fueling starvation in Somalia and other nations, abetting death, sickness, the disintegration of families and the loss of livelihoods far from the war’s front lines.

Before the invasion, Ukraine and Russia were among the world’s top producers and exporters of grains, cooking oil and fertilizers, and together provided nearly all of Somalia’s wheat. The disruption of crude oil from Russia has led to soaring costs for fuel, transportation and food production. Food prices, already at record levels here because of drought and the pandemic, have climbed ever higher as Russia continues to block Ukraine’s primary export route through the Black Sea.

“The crisis is worse now than anytime in my lifetime working in Somalia for the last 20 years, and it is because of the compounded effect of the war in Ukraine,” said Mohamud Mohamed Hassan, Somalia country director for the charity Save the Children. “Communities are at a breaking point.”

While the war in Ukraine is not the only factor it is the most immediate and the most avoidable. Climate change and its impact on the world—including devastating droughts—is a massive problem which I have very little hope humankind will solve in time. We are already beating a retreat, fighting a losing war with something that will have profoundly awful repercussions for generations to come.

But territorial disputes have solutions.

One of these is to negotiate with Putin while Ukraine is still in a relatively strong position to negotiate. Indeed, I believe that the only possible step forward now is to do everything in our power to help negotiate a peace.

The United States has poured money into the Ukrainian war effort because our government sees Putin as a threat and we hope to weaken him in the Ukraine. But I have to ask, what is the end-game? Do we really believe the president when he suggests that Ukraine will not have to make any territorial concessions to Russia? Is that a realistic end-goal? Will Ukraine be able to expel all Russian troops and chase them back to Russia? There have been rumblings about regime change in Russia, but is it at all likely or realistic to think we could topple Putin without sparking a nuclear war? Backing Putin into a corner seems like a uniquely bad idea.

So then what? If it is not realistic to suggest that Ukraine can win the war and hold on to all its territories and it is equally unrealistic to think we could enact regime change in Russia, what is the outcome we are after exactly?

Do the American people care enough about the plight of the Ukrainians to support an endless war that results in increased gas prices and painful inflation? Do the European nations have the political will to continue to support an endless war that risks crippling their economies?

Russia has reduced shipments of gas to Germany through the Nord Stream pipeline by 60% and the pipeline is set to shut down entirely for repairs this month. It’s possible that this will end supply to Germany entirely. What will this energy crisis mean for the German economy? For the wider European and global economy?

“Because of the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry,” said Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB), in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag. “Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany.”

How much of a global recession and all the pain and suffering that it will cause—here and in poorer countries like Somalia—can people endure before they are collectively fed up with a conflict that otherwise has very little bearing on their lives? It’s one thing to help the little guy fight off the big mean bully. It’s another thing when that fight lasts for months, potentially years, and disrupts global peace and prosperity all with the threat of nuclear war hanging in the balance.

Writing in Politico, Charles A. Kupchan argues that negotiation that includes concessions should not be viewed as appeasement:

A negotiated end to the conflict is the right goal — and one that needs to arrive sooner rather than later. Ukraine likely lacks the combat power to expel Russia from all of its territory, and the momentum on the battlefield is shifting in Russia’s favor. The longer this conflict continues, the greater the death and destruction, the more severe the disruptions to the global economy and the food supply, and the higher the risk of escalation to full-scale war between Russia and NATO. Transatlantic unity is starting to fray, with France, Germany, Italy and other allies uneasy about the prospect of a prolonged war — especially against the backdrop of rising inflation.

He links to a piece in The Atlantic by Anne Applebaum in which Applebaum calls for the “humiliation” of Putin, arguing that the defeat, sidelining, or removal of Putin is the only outcome that offers any long-term stability in Ukraine and the rest of Europe.”

Applebaum offers up many reasons why an “off-ramp” from the war won’t work, including the possibility that Putin doesn’t want to stop fighting. And you never know, maybe he doesn’t. But her ideas about what “defeat” could look like are shaky at best, and the notion that the only way out of this is to topple Putin is naive and more than a little unhinged. To defeat Russia militarily we would need to commit much more than money and guns. Are we ready for open war with Russia? Are our NATO allies ready to commit to such an effort?

Kupchan is right to call this “wishful thinking, not strategic sobriety.” He’s right also to point out that Putin will remain in power for the foreseeable future and will remain a thorn in the side of the global order regardless of the outcome of the Ukraine conflict.

Kupchan continues:

Biden needs to start weaning mainstream debate away from the false equation of diplomacy with appeasement. When Henry Kissinger recently proposed in Davos that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions to end the war, Zelenskyy retorted: “It seems that Mr. Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time.” Biden himself asserts that “It would be wrong and contrary to well-settled principles” to counsel Ukraine on potential concessions at the negotiating table.

But strategic prudence should not be mistaken for appeasement. It is in Ukraine’s own self-interest to avoid a conflict that festers for years and instead negotiate a ceasefire and follow-on process aimed at concluding a territorial settlement.

We may not be sending troops to Ukraine but our support will prolong the conflict and lead to more death and destruction, more global economic disarray, famine and other rolling catastrophes. We are in a position to help negotiate a peace especially since Ukraine has offered up a much sturdier defense than anyone, including Putin, could have predicted. The choices are never perfect in a situation like this. We could choose to wait and pour more money and resources into the war in the hopes that we will “defeat” Russia. But that may not be the outcome. Ukraine could fall apart and Putin could find himself the victor and then any chance at negotiation or peace is off the table for good.

My guess is that the American people will ultimately care more about the price of gas than the fate of Ukraine, a country far away that was previously known to most as a land of political corruption and beautiful women and not much else. Something tells me that is not enough to muster longterm support even against a cartoon villain like Vladimir P. And Putin will likely not negotiate in good faith. And suffering will be had no matter what happens. But let’s stop pretending that the outcome of this conflict will ever be the defeat of Russia or the toppling of Putin unless, miraculously, his generals turn on him themselves, something that seems utterly unlikely given his popularity with the Russian people.

Tell me why I’m wrong in the comments. Thanks for reading and Happy 4th of July, oh my patriotic droogies.